ISC Defence Intelligence

The F-35 Ejection: How Air Defence Sanctions Killed a Fighter Programme

In July 2019, as Russian S-400 air defence systems arrived in Ankara, the United States responded with immediate sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) and unilaterally ejected Türkiye from the Lockheed Martin F-35A Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter programme. Türkiye had invested over $1.4 billion in the programme and Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) was manufacturing fuselage centre sections, pylons, and weapon-bay doors for the global F-35 supply chain. Ankara had ordered 100 F-35A aircraft.

The ejection removed those 100 aircraft from Türkiye’s force structure plan and left the Turkish Air Force (Türk Hava Kuvvetleri) facing a generational capability gap. The ageing F-16 fleet — the backbone of Turkish combat aviation since the 1980s — was approaching structural limits. Without the F-35, Türkiye had no path to a fifth-generation fighter within the Western alliance framework.

As of 30 March 2026, CAATSA sanctions remain fully in effect. The Savunma Sanayii Başkanlığı (SSB — Presidency of Defence Industries) and four senior officials remain designated under Section 231. Diplomatic momentum toward resolution accelerated in early 2026 — driven partly by the Iranian missile threat that prompted NATO’s Patriot deployments to Türkiye — but no lifting, suspension, or waiver has been announced.

Ankara’s response was not capitulation but strategic redirection. Unable to acquire the F-35 and unwilling to accept permanent dependence on American goodwill, Türkiye turned to Europe’s most capable multi-role combat aircraft: the Eurofighter Typhoon.

October 2025: The £8 Billion Deal

On 27 October 2025, Turkish Defence Minister Yaşar Güler and UK Defence Secretary John Healey signed a bilateral agreement worth approximately £8 billion for the supply of 20 new-build Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft to Türkiye. The deal represents the largest single defence export in British history and was negotiated directly between London and Ankara, bypassing the Eurofighter consortium’s four-nation governance structure (Germany, Italy, Spain, UK) that had previously blocked Turkish acquisition attempts.

The initial tranche comprises 20 new-build Tranche 4 Typhoons manufactured by BAE Systems at Warton, Lancashire. These aircraft will be equipped with the Euroradar CAPTOR-E active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, MBDA Meteor beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles, MBDA Brimstone precision-guided air-to-surface weapons, and Rolls-Royce EJ200 turbofan engines. First deliveries are scheduled for 2029, with full operational capability anticipated from 2030.

The Qatari Transfer and Fleet Expansion to 44 Aircraft

Beyond the 20 new-build aircraft, Türkiye has secured a transfer of 12 Eurofighter Typhoons from Qatar’s existing fleet. Qatar had ordered 24 Typhoons from BAE Systems in 2017; the transfer of half that fleet to Türkiye reflects both Doha’s shifting procurement priorities and Ankara’s determination to accelerate fleet conversion. An additional 12 aircraft are under negotiation, bringing Türkiye’s planned Eurofighter fleet to 44 airframes — sufficient to equip two operational squadrons with reserves.

The fleet expansion from 20 to 44 aircraft transforms the Typhoon acquisition from a symbolic political gesture into a substantive force-structure change. Forty-four fourth-generation-plus fighters, equipped with Meteor and Brimstone, give Türkiye a credible air superiority and precision-strike capability that is fully interoperable with NATO systems — unlike the S-400, which remains isolated from Alliance networks.

25 March 2026: Technical Support Contract Signed

On 25 March 2026, BAE Systems announced the signing of a formal technical support contract for the Turkish Eurofighter programme. This agreement covers pilot training for an initial cohort of 10 Turkish Air Force pilots at RAF Coningsby, Lincolnshire, alongside technical training for approximately 100 maintenance technicians. The support contract also includes ground-based training systems, mission planning infrastructure, and logistics sustainment packages for the first five years of Turkish Typhoon operations.

KAAN: The Indigenous Fifth-Generation Programme

The Eurofighter acquisition does not represent Türkiye’s long-term combat aviation strategy. That role belongs to the TAI KAAN (formerly TF-X), Türkiye’s indigenous fifth-generation stealth fighter programme. KAAN completed its maiden flight on 21 February 2024 and is projected to enter Turkish Air Force service in the late 2020s to early 2030s, with a phased capability roadmap extending to full operational capability with indigenous engines and sensors by the mid-2030s.

The Eurofighter Typhoon fills a critical bridge role: it provides Türkiye with a modern, NATO-interoperable combat aircraft during the decade-long period between F-35 ejection and KAAN maturity. Without the Typhoon, Türkiye would have faced the 2025–2035 period relying entirely on upgraded F-16 Block 70 Vipers — an aircraft that, while capable, does not match the Typhoon’s air superiority performance envelope or weapons integration depth.

The Strategic Calculus: Why the Eurofighter Matters

The Typhoon deal carries significance beyond its technical parameters. The United Kingdom negotiated bilaterally and overrode objections from Germany, which had previously blocked Eurofighter sales to Türkiye on human-rights grounds. London’s willingness to proceed demonstrates the extent to which the renewed Iranian threat and Türkiye’s NATO realignment have reshaped European strategic calculations. For BAE Systems, the contract secures the Warton production line beyond 2030 and positions the UK as Türkiye’s primary European defence partner.

For Türkiye, the Eurofighter represents an outcome the S-400 purchase was always designed to provoke: forcing Western nations to supply advanced military technology on more equitable terms rather than demanding unconditional compliance as the price of access. The F-35 was lost, but the Typhoon — arguably the more capable air-superiority platform in a non-stealth environment — was secured through exactly the kind of strategic pressure that Ankara has practiced since the T-LORAMIDS competition in 2009.

ISC Commentary: The Unintended Consequences of Sanctions

The irony is layered. US sanctions drove Türkiye from the F-35. The F-35’s loss drove Türkiye to the Eurofighter. The Eurofighter deal now positions the United Kingdom — not the United States — as Türkiye’s closest Western defence partner. Washington’s attempt to punish Ankara for the S-400 purchase has inadvertently transferred £8 billion in defence revenue and strategic influence from American to British industry.

This is not an isolated phenomenon. Sanctions regimes consistently produce second-order effects that sanctioning powers fail to anticipate. In Türkiye’s case, CAATSA did not compel Ankara to abandon the S-400 and return obediently to the Patriot queue. Instead, it accelerated Turkish investment in indigenous alternatives — the KAAN fifth-generation fighter, SIPER long-range air defence, Hisar-A and Hisar-O short- and medium-range systems — and opened the door to European partnerships that bypassed Washington entirely.

The £8 billion Eurofighter deal is the clearest example of what happens when a great power attempts to enforce compliance through exclusion rather than partnership. Ankara did not capitulate. It adapted. And the strategic geography of Western defence industrial relationships shifted permanently as a result.

Read the full air defence context in Part 1: NATO Deploys Third Patriot Battery to Türkiye.